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Get a GRiP (Gravitational Risk Procedure) on risk by using an approach inspired by the physics of gravitational forces between body masses. In April 2010, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Special Events staff (Protective Secur...
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Get a GRiP (Gravitational Risk Procedure) on risk by using an approach inspired by the physics of gravitational forces between body masses. In April 2010, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Special Events staff (Protective Security Advisors (PSAs)) expressed concern about how to calculate risk given measures of consequence, vulnerability, and threat. The PSAs believed that it is not 'right' to assign zero risk, as a multiplicative formula would imply, to cases in which the threat is reported to be extremely small, and perhaps could even be assigned a value of zero, but for which consequences and vulnerability are potentially high. They needed a different way to aggregate the components into an overall measure of risk. To address these concerns, GRiP was proposed and developed. The inspiration for GRiP is Sir Isaac Newton's Universal Law of Gravitation: the attractive force between two bodies is directly proportional to the product of their masses and inversely proportional to the squares of the distance between them. The total force on one body is the sum of the forces from 'other bodies' that influence that body. In the case of risk, the 'other bodies' are the components of risk (R): consequence, vulnerability, and threat (which we denote as C, V, and T, respectively). GRiP treats risk as if it were a body within a cube.
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As performed conventionally, nuclear probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) may be criticized as utilizing inscrutable and unjustifiably 'precise' quantitative informed judgment or extrapolation from that judgement. To meet this crit...
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As performed conventionally, nuclear probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) may be criticized as utilizing inscrutable and unjustifiably 'precise' quantitative informed judgment or extrapolation from that judgement. To meet this criticism, the authors propose and argue for controlling principles that govern the formulation of probability densities given only the informed input that would be required for a simple bounding analysis. These principles are founded upon information theoretic ideas of maximum uncertainty and cover both cases in which there exists a stochastic model of the phenomenon of interest and cases in which there is no such model. In part, the principles are conventional and they justify such an approach by appeal to certain analogies in accounting practice and judicial decision-making. Examples are given. They believe that by appropriate employment of these principles, substantial progress towards PRA scrutability and transparency would be achieved.
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The risk assessment process is a structured approach to obtaining expert judgments on the level of waterway risk. The process also addresses the relative merits of specific types of Vessel Traffic Management (VTM) improvements for...
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The risk assessment process is a structured approach to obtaining expert judgments on the level of waterway risk. The process also addresses the relative merits of specific types of Vessel Traffic Management (VTM) improvements for reducing risk in the port. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the port risk assessment process uses a select group of waterway users/stakeholders in each port to evaluate waterway risk factors and the effectiveness of various VTM improvements. The process requires the participation of local Coast Guard officials before and throughout the workshops. Thus the process is a joint effort involving waterway users, stakeholders, and the agencies/entities responsible for implementing selected risk mitigation measures. This methodology employs a generic model of port risk that was conceptually developed by a National Dialog Group on Port Risk and then translated into computer algorithms by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center. In that model, risk is defined as the sum of the probability of a casualty and its consequences. Consequently, the model includes variables associated with both the causes and the effects of vessel casualties. The participants are asked to establish scales to measure each variable. Once the parameters have been established for each risk-inducing factor, port specific risk is estimated by putting into the computer risk model specific values for that port for each variable. The computer model allows comparison of relative risk and the potential efficacy of various VTM improvements between different ports.
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Risked-based system inspection guides, for nuclear power plants which have been subjected to a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), have been developed to provide guidance to NRC inspectors in prioritizing their inspection activit...
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Risked-based system inspection guides, for nuclear power plants which have been subjected to a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), have been developed to provide guidance to NRC inspectors in prioritizing their inspection activities. Systems are prioritized, and then dominant component failure modes and human errors within those systems are identified for the above-stated purposes. Examples of applications to specific types of NRC inspection activities are also presented. Thus, the report provides guidance for both the development and use of risk-based system inspection guides.
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Effective ecosystem restoration decision making requires analysis of the costs and benefits of alternative actions. The outcomes of restoration actions are often uncertain--and the models used to assess the outcomes are equally un...
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Effective ecosystem restoration decision making requires analysis of the costs and benefits of alternative actions. The outcomes of restoration actions are often uncertain--and the models used to assess the outcomes are equally uncertain--due to incomplete ecological knowledge and other factors, such as limited data. These uncertainties can impose some risk. This technical note provides an overview of two quantitative methods for assessing risk associated with restoration decisions, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis. An example of these methods is provided for a Louisiana coastal wetland restoration study. A risk is a potential adverse consequence that may (or may not) be realized in the future and is typically defined by the product of the likelihood of an outcome (i.e., probability) and the consequence of that outcome (Suedel et al. 2012). Forecasting the outcome of a restoration project often includes considerable uncertainty due to incomplete knowledge, imperfect models, stochastic environmental conditions, and many other factors. Risk-informed decision making requires explicit acknowledgement of key sources of uncertainty and seeks to minimize adverse outcomes related to those uncertainties. Risk assessment is a field of study that applies an array of qualitative and quantitative tools to define likelihoods and outcomes of a given decision (Suedel et al. 2012). Assessment of project risk and uncertainty has been required of US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) planners since the establishment of Principles and Standards in 1973. Qualitative risk assessment methods include listing sources of risk and uncertainty, relative rankings of risks, and multi-objective comparison of risks. Although qualitative methods have been used in restoration decision making, few quantitative risk assessments have been undertaken (Suedel et al. 2012).
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This paper describes the evolution of the Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) Unclassified Computer Security (UCS) Program over the past seven years. The intent has been to satisfy the requirements included in the DOE Order 1360.2B...
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This paper describes the evolution of the Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) Unclassified Computer Security (UCS) Program over the past seven years. The intent has been to satisfy the requirements included in the DOE Order 1360.2B (DOE 1992) for Unclassified Computer Security in the most efficient and cost-effective manner.
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We have developed a prototype of tool support for risk assessment that uses selected components of the Software Engineering Institute (SEI) information, specifically: Capability Maturity Model (CMM) process activities, CMM proces...
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We have developed a prototype of tool support for risk assessment that uses selected components of the Software Engineering Institute (SEI) information, specifically: Capability Maturity Model (CMM) process activities, CMM process goals and the SEI taxonomy of software project risks.
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